The 2013 Spring/Summer Es Season on 10-Meters - 6 Week Recap of PropNET Data

Hi all,
We are now six weeks into this year's Es season.
It still looks like it is being influenced by the Sun to some extent.
Makes it interesting.  We are having coverage, but no intensity.
We have also had some Trans-Atlantic. Western captures are low.

All data, maps and charts are strictly 10-Meter PropNET and Non-PropNET PSK31 captures at the QTH of KA5DWI EM12ju near Dallas. TX.  Data collection began on April 20, 2013 and ended for this report on June 6. Charts with time reflect my local Daylight Savings Time (Central) and are listed from sunrise to sunset through twilight hours. Solar noon is during the 13:00 (19 UTC) hour. All captures have been verified and separated by Es, F2 and/or TEP.

Map PropNET and Non-PropNET 10-Meter Captures 5/27-6/07

 Good coverage.  Some Trans-Atlantic and Caribbean Es along with TEP.

10-Meter PNP and NPN Captures This Season:

Only 1000 10-Meter PropNET Captures this season.

The trends clearly show a continual increase in activity on 10-Meters. It is just low volume.

 Compared to the past 7 year average, we remain very low. 

10-Meter Es Hourly Trends:

All look very normal and are similar to what the 7-Year 10M Es Study has shown. 

 This closely matches what has been seen in other years, but more close to years with some solar activity.  Higher solar flux usually brings better afternoon activity. 

 

 Non-PropNET 10M captures look close to PropNET trends.

 Overall Es captures are not much different than past years.

Captures related to Solar Flux actually exceed Es captures this season. Most are TEP to South America and Oceania.

Active Hours:

Despite lower activity, active hours are about equal to previous years.

Better in earlier weeks, they now run close to average.

So far what is seen is that 10M Es openings still occur at normal times. Intensity is just off.  The best thing is to be there and make noise when opportunities exist.

73s

Art KA5DWI

The 2013 Spring/Summer Es Season Begins

Hi all,

Es season has begun.
Volumes are down, but active hours are up and over average.

For the past 2 weeks coverage looks good, but the west half of the U.S. is missing.

Good DX was still occurring as solar flux was fairly high.  TEP occurs daily and well into the evening hours.

The following charts are comprised of Es captures. Those considered F2 and TEP are not included.  Capture totals only include PropNET participants received at KA5DWI..

 Active hour totals are based on all stations captured, PropNET and Non-PropNET.  TEP ansd F2 are not included.

It appears that we are off to a good start.  We need more west coast activity.

73s
Art KA5DWI

The 2012-2013 Fall/Winter 10-Meter "F2" Season

Hi everyone,
Sorry, I am weeks late with the recap.
Enjoy.

How The Season Started:
    During the early parts of the fall of 2011 we saw a rapid acceleration of solar activity. In November 2011, the first reports of 6-Meter F2 propagation occurred. Things looked up.  By January 2012, it stopped and started a slow and steady decline.
    Throughout the summer there were minor peaks of solar activity, but it never increased overall.  The decline sadly continued throughout the fall and winter of 2012-13.

Comparing Solar Flux from the 26 weeks of the fall/winter seasons, only 3 weeks of 2012-13 were higher than 2011-12.

Sunspot numbers were better for about 9 weeks, but failed to produce higher solar flux numbers.

Other than the third week of the season, little storming of the Sun occurred. When storms occurred, there was not much of a rise in solar flux.

For 2012-13 on average, Solar Flux was 16 points lower, sunspot numbers 18 lower and the A-Index 1 point lower than the 2011-12 counterpart.

F2 MUF is based on the average Solar Flux for the week measured to a designated location optimum for single hop F2 propagation (1425 miles).  Average daily MUF was 17.2 MHz this season, a decline of 1.4 MHZ from the previous season. At the end of 2012, the difference was 2.2 MHz.

The lower MUF had a drastic affect on the number of available hours of 10-Meter propagation. For 13 weeks of the 26 week season hardly any opportunity of 10-Meter F2 existed.

The Results:

For 2012-13, captures declined 60%.  The difference percentage was set by the winter solstice. Captures during 2012-13 were 9,958. In 2011-12 there were 24,772.

Only two weeks of the season did 2012-13 exceed the same week of 2011-12.  There were only two weeks of the season that could be considered highly active (1,000+ captures). Many weeks little to no activity.

The chart above represents sunrise to sunset, and back to sunrise.
As noted, captures in 2011-12 were best in the morning hours ( East coast and Europe F2).  This season all hours were lower and favored afternoon periods (mostly Trans-Equatorial) that was less dependent on a high solar flux.

2012-13 Global Coverage

Despite the lower solar numbers coverage was not as bad. 544 grid squares, 80 DXCC entities were logged.

2011-12 Global Coverage

 
652 grid squares, 80 DXCC entities were logged last year.
A total of 792 grids squares and 94 DXCC entities have been logged in 2 seasons.

Hourly Breakdown

The hourly figures clearly reflect the lack of solar activity.  When solar numbers are higher the morning hours are much higher than afternoon. Propagation to ham populations from this QTH results in better morning activity.  This includes the east coast of the U.S. and Canada, as well as Europe.  This year those numbers of captures were very low.

 
This season, afternoon captures were more influential in the capture totals. Changes in 1,750-3,500 and 3,500-4,750 had the most influence.

Winter Es:

High solar flux is a definite help and strongly influences Winter Es. This year was much more normal in volume and trends and showed little affects from the sun. 

Summary:

This all appears to be a bit doom and gloom, but a few physicists believe that we will see a dual peak in this cycle.  The past two cycles have and with the mistiming of the crossing of the solar poles that should occur. There is always next year.

73s
Art Jackson 
KA5DWI

10-Meter Propagation Update - March 16

This is the last weekly update.  A more further recap of the season is forthcoming.

Hi all,
Solar Flux has had a three week increase. The Sun also continued to wake up a bit as we saw some geomagnetic activity. Capture activity was slightly higher.

The trend towards trans-equatorial continues this week as F2 propagation reappeared as solar flux rose.
PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 3/16/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 3/09/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 3/03/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 2/24/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 2/17/13

PropNET Captures 8 Days @0000 UTC 2/10/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 2/02/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 1/28/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @1200 UTC 1/20/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 1/13/13

PropNET Captures 7 Days @0000 UTC 1/06/13

PropNET Captures 8 Days @2100 UTC 12/31/12

Solar Flux rose again this week and closely equals levels the same time last year.

There is finally an indication of another peak in Solar Flux after weeks of calm.

 Sunspot numbers this season are closely related to the Solar Flux counterpart.

Daily trends rose close to January levels.

The difference between 2011-12 and 2012-13 remained consistent, approximately a 20 point swing.

Captures were still lower than what was experienced in 2011-12.

The gap between years was better towards the end.

Total 2012-3 volumes were down 60% from last year.

For 2012-3 the season's cumulative volume did not exceed the period ending 11/05/11.

As mentioned for many weeks, the lack of Trans-Atlantic

activity is the greatest source of the decline and due to lower solar flux. 

The most active hour is 2 hours prior to sunset.

The first chart shows sunrise to sunset back to sunrise. 

There is more and more talk now that Cycle 24 has peaked. Many hope that a secondary peak in this cycle will eventually appear. 

It wasn't all doom and gloom.  

When the final recap is posted, we will see good coverage just lower opportunity.

More to come.

73s

Art KA5DWI